Stock Value Outlook 2023: Has Value Returned? | fidelity (2023)

Investing in value can come from regrowth.

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Stock Value Outlook 2023: Has Value Returned? | fidelity (1)

main learning points

  • While growth stocks have largely led the way over value stocks since the Great Recession, some investors believe the rotation to value is overdue and may already be underway.
  • The disruption in the financial sector has created interesting potential value in some regional banks and insurers.
  • Fidelity specialists have also discovered potential value in certain segments of the healthcare, utilities and energy sectors.
  • Value-focused mutual funds and ETFs may be an option for investors interested in increasing their exposure to undervalued companies.

Growth stocks such as the fast-growing 'FAANG' group of companies have been doing well over the past 15 years. However, no single investment style or segment has managed to maintain market dominance forever. This may be why many investors now believe that valuable stocks are overdue for leadership.

Value stocks are generally mature companies that sell at relatively low prices (think bargain quality). Last year, value stocks even outperformed growth stocks for the first time in years, leading some investors to say there was finally a rotation toward value. Value led to an increase of more than 20 percentage points in 2022 as measured by the Russell 1000®Growth and value ratios (although past performance is never a guarantee of future performance).1

(Video) Market outlook 2023: A look at inflation, stocks, the Fed, housing and more

While stocks have been booming through 2023, some investors think this is just a temporary setback in the early stage of value leadership. According to this thesis, the valuation gap between growth stocks and value stocks has reached extremes in recent years and value may revert to its historical pattern of outperforming growth for very long periods of time. In addition, Fidelity managers have identified stocks that not only trade at attractive valuations, but may also be well positioned to grow in a cooling economy.

from the desert

In fact, the relatively recent fall in value in the investment desert has been a bit of an anomaly. “Historically, stocks have outperformed over a very long period of time,” said Matt Friedman, manager of the Fidelity Value Strategies Fund (). Value's long-term streak from the late 1920s to around 2007 has been well documented and widely discussed by market researchers.2

The recent growth spurt was partly driven by the unusually strong profit growth in 2010 at large-cap companies (such as FAANG again). This was also partly due to rising price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, possibly due to investors' preference for growth stocks during those years.

However, Friedman says the market's surge has pushed the valuation gap between growth and value stocks to an extreme, increasing the likelihood of leadership changes. In addition, he says, major global economic events such as COVID or the Great Recession are often catalysts for changes in market leadership. While nothing is guaranteed in the markets, investors can look forward to the potential of stocks.

“We believe there could be a leadership shift and we are excited about the prospect of high-quality equity growth,” said Friedman.

Opportunity in an unloved sector

The financial sector has the highest weight in major value indices and given the recent volatility due to bank closures, this could create an attractive landscape in which to search for value.

Friedman says many regional banks manage balance sheet risk adroitly, but their actions paid off nonetheless, as investors attacked all regional banks with the same brush. Two examples of banks he says have managed interest rate risk conservatively are M&T Bank Corp. (), based in Buffalo, New York, and First Citizens BancShares Inc. (), a Raleigh, North Carolina-based company that took over the commercial banking operations of the now-defunct Silicon Valley Bank.

(Video) What's Ahead For The Markets And Economy: 2023 Mid-Year Outlook - 6/13/23 | Fidelity Investments

And while rapidly rising interest rates have proven challenging for some banks, there are also segments of the financial industry that benefit from higher rates. One is the insurance industry, where companies typically invest the premiums received in fixed income instruments.

For example, property and casualty insurers — companies that insure homes, cars, and businesses — typically collect premiums from policyholders at the beginning of the contract term and can now invest that money at much higher rates. An outfit that illustrates this phenomenon is the Chubb (), an insurer for over 140 years. The company is widely recognized for its strong brand, excellent customer service and careful management of its commitments over the years.

Main Fund Assets*

Top 10 met Fidelity®Value Strategy Fonds () as of March 31, 2023:

  • 2,6% – Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. ()
  • 1,9% – Welltower Inc. ()
  • 1,9% - Hess Corporation ()
  • 1.8% – PG&E Corp. ()
  • 1.8% – FirstSource Builders, Inc. ()
  • 1,6% – First Citizens BancShares Inc. ()
  • 1,6% – CubeSmart ()
  • 1,5% – Flex sp. z oo ()
  • 1,5% – Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. ()
  • 1,4% – Ameriprise Financial Inc. ()

(See the lastfund information.)

You are looking for a margin of safety

There is no official definition of "high value" stocks. Major indices typically use common financial criteria, such as P/E ratios or price-to-book ratios, to assign stocks to a growth or value category.

Sean Gavin, Director of Fidelity®Value Discovery-fonds (), prefers a more detailed approach. It looks for stocks that trade below their intrinsic value calculation, including inputs such as discounted cash flow and economic value added analysis (which measures how much value a company creates above its cost of capital). He says that in order to qualify for the fund, securities must be cheap enough that he believes they offer a large margin of safety.

Gavin says when the US is in the late phase of the economic cycle (as Fidelity's asset allocation research team said).I think it is now), tends towards higher quality companies with greater earnings stability and less economic sensitivity. Two sectors he says are suitable are healthcare and utilities.

Grupa Cigna () is an example of a health insurer that can be relatively insensitive to economic volatility. Cigna has sold several non-core businesses, is increasing margins and has a track record of increasing its annual dividend. However, Gavin says his shares have recently traded at a modest valuation and at a significant discount to the health insurance average.

Just like going to the doctor, people should keep their lights and appliances on during any economic situation. PG&E Corporation (), the parent company of Pacific Gas and Electric Co., is an example of a utility that met Gavin's investment criteria. PG&E, which serves customers in northern and central California, is growing fairly quickly by utility standards, in part because of the state's growing demand for electric vehicle charging stations.

(Video) Why You'll Regret Buying Stocks In 2023

Main Fund Assets*

Top 10 met Fidelity®Value Discovery-fonds () as of March 31, 2023:

  • 5,0% – Berkshire Hathaway Inc. klasa B ()
  • 4,8% – Exxon Mobil Corp. ()
  • 2,8% – Comcast Corp. ()
  • 2,8% – JPMorgan Chase & Co. ()
  • 2.6%: PG&E Corp. ()
  • 2,5% – Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. ()
  • 2.4% – Grupa Cigna ()
  • 2,2% – Chubb Ltd. ()
  • 2,1% - Bank of America Corp. ()
  • 2.1% - Centene Corp. ()

(See the lastfund information.)

(Video) Bond market: What to expect in 2023

Short delivery

Like many investors, Friedman is drawn to industries with long-standing supply shortages, which he sees in the energy sector. He says there has been a long-term under-investment in traditional energy sources over the past 8 years for a variety of reasons. Given the long time it takes to launch a new oil or gas project, this could support high energy prices in the medium term.

"I think it creates a good energy cycle," he says.

Some of Friedman's favorite metrics are the level and growth of the company's free cash flow per share. Large capital investments tend to temporarily reduce cash flow. But if energy prices remain high after the initial investment period ends, cash flows may increase.

For this reason, it favors Canadian oil sands producers who have made such large investments. Two major Canadian companies illustrating this trend are Canadian Natural Resources () i Imperial Oil ().

find ideas

Investors interested in establishing or growing their exposure to value stocks can search for individual stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs on Below are some insights from Fidelity mutual funds and ETF research tools (these are not Fidelity recommendations).

loyal investment funds

  • fidelity®Blue Chip Value-fonds ()
  • fidelity®Mid Cap Value-fonds ()
  • fidelity®Value Discovery-fonds ()
  • fidelity®value fund ()
  • fidelity®Value Strategy Fonds ()

Fidelity Exchange Traded Funds (ETF)

(Video) 2023 Outlook: Markets, Stocks and Bonds - Weekly Market Sense - January 10, 2023 | Fidelity

  • fidelity®ETF value ratio ()
  • fidelity®ETF-y typu blue chip value()

This ETF is different from traditional ETFs.Traditional ETFs tell the public what assets they hold each day. Not this ETF. So maybepose additional risksfor your investment. For example, you may have to pay more money to trade ETF stocks. This ETF will provide less information to investors who tend to charge higher transaction fees when they have less information. The price you pay to buy ETF shares on the exchange may not match the value of your ETF portfolio. The same applies to the sale of shares. These price differences may be greater for this ETF compared to other ETFs because it provides less information to investors. These additional risks can be even greater in poor or uncertain market conditions. The ETF publishes a "Watch Basket" daily on its website to help you trade ETF shares. While the tracking basket contains some ETF holdings, it is not a true ETF portfolio. The differences between this ETF and other ETFs can also have advantages. Keeping certain ETF information secret may expose that ETF to less risk that other investors could anticipate or copy its investment strategy. This can improve ETF performance. However, if other investors can copy or predict the ETF's investment strategy, the performance of the ETF may be hurt. Additional information on the unique characteristics and risks of ETFs can be found in the notes below and in the main investment risks section of the prospectus.

Fidelity evaluators are research tools that help investors self-evaluate these types of securities. Criteria and input entered are solely under the control of the user, and any screens or strategies with pre-selected criteria (including experts) are for user convenience only. Valuation experts are provided by independent companies that are not affiliated with Fidelity. The information provided or obtained from these reviewers is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or guidance, an offer or solicitation to make an offer to buy or sell securities, or a recommendation or endorsement by any Fidelity of securities. or investment strategy. . Fidelity does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy or approach for screening or evaluating equities, preferred securities, exchange-traded products or closed-end funds. Fidelity does not warrant that the information provided is accurate, complete, or current, and does not warrant the results obtained from its use. Determine which stocks are right for you based on your investment goals, risk tolerance, financial situation and other individual factors, and reassess them regularly.


Will the stock market make a comeback in 2023? ›

Looking ahead to second-quarter reports, analysts are calling for S&P 500 earnings to fall 6.4% compared to a year ago. Fortunately, analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth will rebound back into positive territory in the second half of 2023.

What is the stock market projection for 2023? ›

Currently, the consensus estimate is for an 8% contraction in the growth rate, followed by a 6% contraction in the second quarter. For calendar-year 2023, the consensus earnings estimate is for a 2% contraction. But that estimate is still coming down, and based on historical patterns, could continue to do so.

Will market recover in 2023? ›

Investors should expect the bear market to persist throughout 2023. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes should help to stabilize the economy at some point in 2023. This would lead to a potential market recovery.

Is it worth investing in stocks 2023? ›

After dropping more than 18% in 2022, the S&P 500 is now up around 6% year to date (as of May 4), leading some investors to wonder if it's safe to invest now. The short answer is "yes." The longer answer is, "yes, you should be investing regardless of market movements, if you have the means."

Will the stock market bounce back in 2024? ›

Through the first quarter of 2024, analysts expect the S&P 500 to climb 8 percent, to 4,289 from 3,970.99 when the survey closed on March 24. That follows a year of optimism in 2022, when each quarterly survey predicted that the market would be higher in a year.

How long will it take for the stock market to recover? ›

In a nutshell, nobody knows when the stock market will recover and start reaching new all-time highs. It could happen in a year or so if things go very well economically, or it could take several years. After the dot-com crash, it took some solid companies a long time to get back to where they were.

Will 2023 be a bear market? ›

The bear [market] is almost over, and a new exciting bull market awaits in the second half of 2023,” he said, pointing to potential in technology stocks in particular.

Should you take your money out of the stock market? ›

Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss. Cash doesn't grow in value; in fact, inflation erodes its purchasing power over time. Cashing out after the market tanks means that you bought high and are selling low—the world's worst investment strategy.

How will 2023 recession affect stock market? ›

Wall Street analysts expect companies in the S&P 500 to boost earnings by 1.5% in 2023, according to Refinitiv. “In a plain-vanilla recession, earnings go down 20%. We've never had a recession where earnings were up at all,” Rosenberg told MarketWatch, calling this year's forecasts a “glaring anomaly.”

What markets will boom in 2023? ›

Three Key Sectors in Which to Invest in 2023
  • Consumer staples. ...
  • Precious metals. ...
  • Healthcare.
Jan 12, 2023

What stocks will boom in 2023? ›

10 Best Growth Stocks Of June 2023
  • Bank of America's Best Growth Stocks of 2023.
  • Amazon (AMZN)
  • Constellation Energy (CEG)
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
  • Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL)
  • Eli Lilly (LLY)
  • Match (MTCH)
  • Progressive (PGR)
Jun 1, 2023

Should I keep my stocks or sell? ›

Investors might sell a stock if it's determined that other opportunities can earn a greater return. If an investor holds onto an underperforming stock or is lagging the overall market, it may be time to sell that stock and put the money to work in another investment.

How far will stocks fall in 2023? ›

Publicly traded companies continue to see a slide in revenues in the second quarter of 2023. The larger question is how long it will take for earnings to recover. FactSet Research Systems estimates that S&P 500 second-quarter earnings will decline by 6.3%, and revenue will fall by 0.4%.

Will the stock market bounce back? ›

After ending the year down nearly 20%, the S&P 500 index is in the green for 2023. And the Nasdaq Composite — which plunged 33% in 2022 — is up more than 4.5% this year. So when will stocks fully recover from the bear market? Many experts appear optimistic it will happen in 2023.

What stocks will double in 2023? ›

7 Growth Stocks That Could Double Your Money in 2023
KYMRKymera Therapeutics$28.35
HSAIHesai Group$8.10
ABCLAbCellera Biologics$5.74
2 more rows
May 14, 2023

Will the market get worse in 2023? ›

The market could suffer early in 2023 due to a weaker U.S. economy and rising unemployment as the Fed's rate hikes ripple through Corporate America and impact household finances.

Will the stock market recover by 2026? ›

To arrive thus to a 17-year average total return of, say, 15%, the S&P 500 would have to be around 7000 sometime in 2026, assuming dividends of about 2% per year. A 16% average annual total return would take it closer to 8000, or well above three times its current level.

What is the Dow price prediction for 2024? ›

The updated Dow Jones price prediction for 2024 is $37,877. Long Forecast expects Dow Jones to trade at 33,372 points by the end of Q2 2023 and around 35,000 points by the end of 2023. The maximum of the year should be 36,770.

Where will the stock market be in 10 years? ›

We project U.S. large-company stocks to return 6.1% annually over the next 10 years, compared with 7.6% for international large-company stocks. This is mainly due to differences in valuations between U.S. stocks (as measured by the S&P 500 index) and international stocks (as measured by MSCI EAFE index).

What is the longest time for the stock market to recover? ›

As shown in the table below, the recovery period for U.S. stocks has been as long as 15 years: In the wake of the 1929 Crash, the IA SBBI US Large Stock Index didn't fully recover until late 1944. For gold bugs, the longest recovery period spanned more than 26 years (from October 1980 until April 2007).

How long did it take the stock market to recover after the 2008 crash? ›

2008: In response to the housing bubble and subprime mortgage crisis, the S&P 500 lost nearly half its value and took two years to recover.

Are we going to see a bull market in 2023? ›

Here are some additional reasons why 2023 is shaping up to be a historic bull market. The previous week's better than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Producer Price Index (PPI) confirmed that inflation was on the decline. It's still too high.

Is there going to be a bull market in 2023? ›

June 8, 2023, at 4:26 p.m. The S&P 500 is now in what Wall Street refers to as a bull market, meaning the index has risen 20% or more from its most recent low.

Where will the S&P be at the end of 2023? ›

The S&P 500 is up about 9% so far in 2023 after falling 19.4% in 2022. Gains this year are largely thanks to big growth and technology stocks, which have rallied as other areas of the market have faltered, like regional banks.

Should a 70 year old be in the stock market? ›

Indeed, a good mix of equities (yes, even at age 70), bonds and cash can help you achieve long-term success, pros say. One rough rule of thumb is that the percentage of your money invested in stocks should equal 110 minus your age, which in your case would be 40%. The rest should be in bonds and cash.

Should I move my investments to cash 2023? ›

The answer is no, according to advisors and investment analysts. "Allocating more funds to high-yielding CDs, money market funds, or treasuries may seem prudent; however, this is a form of market timing and should be avoided," explained Jonathan Shenkman of Shenkman Wealth Management.

Should I pull my money out of the bank 2023? ›

Do no withdraw cash. Despite the recent uncertainty, experts don't recommend withdrawing cash from your account. Keeping your money in financial institutions rather than in your home is safer, especially when the amount is insured.

What will 2023 look like financially? ›

For 2023 as a whole, real GDP (that is, GDP adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) is projected to grow by just 0.1 percent. The growth of real GDP is projected to speed up thereafter, averaging 2.4 percent a year from 2024 to 2027, in response to declines in interest rates.

Should I be worried about a recession in 2023? ›

Should You Be Worried About a Recession? If the U.S. does slip into a recession sometime in the second half of 2023 or early 2024, there's no reason for investors to panic. First off, historically recessions don't last very long. The average duration of a U.S. recession since World War II is just 11.1 months.

What is the financial prediction for 2023? ›

Overall, investment growth is projected to decelerate markedly from 4% in 2022 to 0.9% in 2023. Gradual normalisation of economic activity is expected to reinvigorate companies' investment decisions, pushing overall investment growth up by 2.1% in 2024. Inflation keeps eroding the purchasing power of consumers.

What are the safest stocks to invest in 2023? ›

For the rest of 2023, investors should consider some safe stock winners like Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY). Today, these stocks still have substantial competitive advantages and unique business characteristics likely to support outperformance in this cycle.

What is the best stock to buy in 2023? ›

10 of the Best Stocks to Buy for 2023
StockYTD Total Returns Through June 6 Inc. (AMZN)50.7%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS)6.1%
PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL)-8.7%
EOG Resources Inc. (EOG)-10.9%
7 more rows

What 4 sectors to buy in 2023? ›

2023 US sector outlook
  • Real estate.
  • Materials.
  • Industrials.
  • Communication. services.

Where should I invest my money in 2023? ›

Recap of the 10 best investments in 2023
  • High-yield savings accounts.
  • Short-term certificates of deposit.
  • Series I bonds.
  • Short-term corporate bond funds.
  • Dividend stock funds.
  • Value stock funds.
  • REIT funds.
  • S&P 500 index funds.
May 1, 2023

What stocks will triple in 2023? ›

7 Hot Growth Stocks Poised to Triple in 2023
APLTApplied Therapeutics$1.55
LYTSLSI Industries$12.47
ONDSOndas Holdings$1.07
LIFEaTyre Pharma$2.08
OLPXOlaplex Holdings$3.76
2 more rows
May 5, 2023

How much is $10,000 invested in Apple 20 years ago? ›

As a result, $10,000 in AAPL stock purchased 20 years ago would be worth about $7.51 million today, assuming reinvested dividends.

When should you exit a stock? ›

When you find a stock that has better fundamentals than the one you are holding on to now, it is a good time to exit the stock. This also means that the company is doing better and coming up with better products or services that can grab better opportunities.

When should you cash out stocks? ›

Reasons to sell a stock
  1. You've found something better. ...
  2. You made a mistake. ...
  3. The company's business outlook has changed. ...
  4. Tax reasons. ...
  5. Rebalancing your portfolio. ...
  6. Valuation no longer reflects business reality. ...
  7. You need the money. ...
  8. The stock has gone up.
Mar 8, 2023

What to do with losing stocks? ›

Hold on to the shares you believe are “clearly” good and sell the losing shares, regardless of their past performance. The cost price is irrelevant when deciding what to do with a losing stock in your portfolio. If you wouldn't buy more of a losing stock, sell it. Don't put off until you break even.

Will shares crash in 2023? ›

We do *not* expect a stock market crash in 2023. We expect the opposite: a new start with new market trends in 2023. Many investors continue to be anxious about a stock market crash in 2023. Contrary to what many pundits try to make you believe there is no 50% drop in markets underway, on the contrary.

Will tech stocks crash in 2023? ›

Tech stocks' superb 2023 is about to be shattered by a recession, Bank of America warns. Tech stocks have enjoyed an impressive run so far in 2023, with the Nasdaq surging 18%. But that rally could be "cracked" by a US recession, according to Bank of America.

How much will stocks increase in 5 years? ›

5-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year S&P 500 returns
Period (start-of-year to end-of-2022)Average annual S&P 500 return
5 years (2018-2022)7.51%
10 years (2013-2022)10.41%
20 years (2003-2022)7.64%
30 years (1993-2022)7.52%
May 30, 2023

How do you recover lost money in the stock market? ›

How to Recover From a Big Trading Loss
  1. Learn from your mistakes. Successful traders need to be able to recognize their strengths and weaknesses—and plan around them. ...
  2. Keep a trade log. ...
  3. Write it off. ...
  4. Slowly start to rebuild. ...
  5. Scale up and scale down. ...
  6. Use limit and stop orders. ...
  7. Get a second opinion.
Mar 9, 2023

Can I lose my 401k if the market crashes? ›

Unfortunately, a stock market crash is likely to result in major declines in your 401(k) account balance, at least short term. How can I avoid losing money from my 401(k)? The best way to avoid losing money in your 401(k) — especially during a recession — is to avoid selling off all your investments.

Can stocks go to zero? ›

If a stock falls to or close to zero, it means that the company is effectively bankrupt and has no value to shareholders. “A company typically goes to zero when it becomes bankrupt or is technically insolvent, such as Silicon Valley Bank,” says Darren Sissons, partner and portfolio manager at Campbell, Lee & Ross.

Will 2023 be a better year for stocks? ›

10% Return for S&P 500 a Real Possibility by End of 2023

Short of a recession — a very real possibility — consensus estimates are for about 5% earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in 2023. That's certainly less than what it was in years past, but still respectable.

What will 2023 look like for the stock market? ›

Currently, the consensus estimate is for an 8% contraction in the growth rate, followed by a 6% contraction in the second quarter. For calendar-year 2023, the consensus earnings estimate is for a 2% contraction.

Which stock will double in 3 years? ›

Jindal Steel & Power: Jindal Steel & Power stock likely to double in 3 years: Kotak Institutional Equities - The Economic Times.

Will the stock market go back up eventually? ›

After ending the year down nearly 20%, the S&P 500 index is in the green for 2023. And the Nasdaq Composite — which plunged 33% in 2022 — is up more than 4.5% this year. So when will stocks fully recover from the bear market? Many experts appear optimistic it will happen in 2023.

Should I hold cash in 2023? ›

The answer is no, according to advisors and investment analysts. "Allocating more funds to high-yielding CDs, money market funds, or treasuries may seem prudent; however, this is a form of market timing and should be avoided," explained Jonathan Shenkman of Shenkman Wealth Management.

Will stocks go back up after a recession? ›

It's not always easy to hang on. Uncertainty about what's coming next can make investing excruciating. But you may find some comfort from the past. Stocks have always bounced back after previous recessions, sometimes quite rapidly.

How bad will the US recession be in 2023? ›

The widely predicted U.S. recession remains out of sight as the first half of 2023 winds down, but the consumer sector that has fueled a remarkable recovery from the pandemic shutdowns may finally be showing signs of fraying.

How long have we been in a bear market 2023? ›

4, 2023, the S&P 500 had spent 282 calendar days in a bear market, per Yardeni.

Will the stock market ever reach $50,000? ›

Dow Jones price prediction 2024, 2025, 2030: In 2030, projections and trends show that the Dow would reach 50,000, according to a mathematical forecasted model successfully applied in the past.

What is a good yearly return on stocks? ›

A good return on investment is generally considered to be about 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, and adjusting for inflation. But of course what one investor considers a good return might not be ideal for someone else.


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2. Stocks fall as Powell, Bank of England lead hawkish tone: Stock market news today | June 22, 2023
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4. How to Make $100 Per Month in Dividends #shorts
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5. Stocks rebound, tech leads as central banks get hawkish: Stock market news today | June 22, 2023
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6. Apple's financial fundamental performance is not worth its valuation, says Short Hills' Steve Weiss
(CNBC Television)


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